World Cup final features top-ranked teams
The World Cup final on Sunday will see Argentina and Spain compete, marking the first time the champions of South America and Europe have met in the tournament’s final match. These two nations currently hold the top two positions in Fifa‘s world ranking for men’s international teams. An Opta supercomputer had rated Luis de la Fuente‘s Spanish side as the favourites to win the tournament, with Argentina considered the fourth most likely contender.
Both teams have demonstrated strong form leading up to this match. Spain enters the final unbeaten in 37 matches, excluding penalty shootouts, while Argentina has secured victories in their last 14 games. The semi-finals featured the correct teams, according to both systems, which had England and France in their top four.
Defensive strength meets attacking prowess
Spain‘s defensive record has been a notable aspect of their tournament performance. They have conceded 2.15 expected goals throughout the competition, averaging 0.31 per match. This represents a high level of defensive consistency over seven games, with five teams allowing more than 2.15 xG in their opening match alone.
While Argentina cannot match Spain‘s defensive statistics, they have maintained a close pace. Argentina was the last of the other 47 teams to concede more than 2.15 xG, which occurred when Yasser Ibrahim scored for Egypt in the last-16. The defending champions have also been the tournament’s top scorers.
The match is expected to feature key players from both sides. Lionel Messi has taken the most shots of any player on either team, with 34 attempts, including two penalties. Lamine Yamal follows with 23 shots, and Mikel Oyarzabal has taken 22 shots, one of which was a penalty. Mikel Oyarzabal also boasts the best expected goals per shot average for either team among players with at least 10 shots, at 0.15.
Substitutes may play a crucial role in the outcome, as both teams possess strong options on the bench. Mikel Merino and Lautaro Martínez, who have higher expected goals per shot figures, are adept at converting significant opportunities in critical moments.
Historical rivalry and tactical considerations
The head-to-head record between Spain and Argentina is perfectly balanced, with each side securing six wins and two draws in previous encounters. This upcoming final will add another chapter to their rivalry. The match is scheduled for Sunday evening at 9pm.
Tactically, Spain has demonstrated collective discipline in executing their system, making it difficult for opponents to create chances. France, for instance, failed to register a shot on target until the 81st minute in their semi-final against Spain, generating only 0.3 expected goals.
Argentina, on the other hand, has shown resilience and flexibility throughout the tournament. They have not been ahead at the 90th minute in any knockout tie but have managed to win every one. Their ability to switch between formations, such as a 4-3-3, a 4-4-2, and a back five, provides tactical versatility. Julián Alvarez has been instrumental in setting the tone without the ball, applying more high-intensity pressures in the opposition half than any other player in the last two World Cups.
Argentina‘s attacking variety is also notable, with five goals from outside the box, and leading the tournament in headed and set-piece goals. Lionel Messi has been involved in 52.7 percent of Argentina‘s shots and contributed to 12 of their 19 goals. The final match is set to kick off at 9:00pm.
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Source: theguardian.com
